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Truckload Rates Head for Their Highest Level Since Early 2022 While Demand Barely Moves: Cass Linehaul Up 10%, AFS Sees a Record-Cost Q4, and the IEA Says the Diesel Squeeze Lasts Well Into 2027

Three reports in twenty-four hours describe the same market. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index says truckload rates will reach their highest level since the first quarter of 2022 despite limited demand signals, LTL will pass 80% above its 2018 baseline for the first time, and 2026 will be the most expensive parcel year on record. Cass' September data show truckload linehaul rates up 10.1% from a year ago, the highest in four years, while shipments grew 1.9%. The IEA says constrained diesel supplies are likely to persist well into 2027. The numbers from Cass, SONAR and DAT, why fuel and capacity rather than demand are doing the work, and what to watch as earnings and bid season begin.

Shut Down in August, Back on the Registry by Fall: FMCSA Asks the White House for Emergency Power to Vet Every New CDL School Before It Is Listed. The Request Has Sat at OMB Since September 21

In a filing to the White House budget office, FMCSA admits the flaw in its own Training Provider Registry: a CDL school removed for fraud can 'log on to the TPR, self-certify with new training provider information, and thus be listed again.' The agency wants emergency authority to collect lesson plans, proof of compliant trucks, instructor licenses, state authorization and facility records from every new school, and every new location, before the listing goes live. The request reached OMB on September 21 with approval asked by September 25; on October 14 it was still marked 'Received in OIRA.' What it requires, how the August shutdown of 110 schools exposed the loophole, and what it means for schools, students and carriers.

Seven in Ten English-Rule Violations Never Park the Driver: OOIDA Tells FMCSA to Lock In the Out-of-Service Rule as 2,190 Comments Close. Texas Parks 6.8%, California 54%

The comment period on FMCSA's proposal to write English-language proficiency into the federal out-of-service rules closed Friday with 2,190 comments, most of them from drivers in favor. OOIDA's filing carries the number that matters: of 97,113 English-proficiency violations written since June 2025, only 28,030 put the driver out of service, a 28.9% rate that runs from 54.2% in California to 6.8% in Texas. The reason is the U.S.-Mexico border commercial zone, where FMCSA's own data show tens of thousands of violations and no OOS orders. The proposal keeps that exception but narrows it to the driver's actual trip, and it would make the rule binding on every state that takes federal safety money. Here is what changes, what stays the same, and what an inspector asks at the roadside today.

Putin's Diesel Goes to the 'Global Marketplace,' Not Your Pump: The First 300,000 Tons Is Less Than America Burns in a Day. Michigan and Maryland Open Dyed Diesel This Week, but Only for Farm and Forest Loads

On Friday President Trump announced that Russia will release more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, a million tons after that and 3 million more later, and the Treasury waived sanctions on it until April 2027. Analysts across the spectrum say it will barely touch the price at the pump: the first tranche is about 2.25 million barrels, less than one day of U.S. diesel use, and it goes into the world market rather than to American truck stops. Diesel has eased to $6.27 from a $6.53 record, while Brent is back near $107 after weekend attacks on Saudi Arabia. Michigan and Maryland declared energy emergencies, but both orders cover farm and forestry vehicles, not freight trucks. What is real, what is not, and what to do with your fuel budget this month.

Your Paper Med Card Stops Counting on Monday: From October 12 Only Alaska Drivers Can Rely on a Printed Medical Certificate; Everyone Else Is What the State Record Says. Also: 1,956 Safe Driver Week Tickets, 494 Violations in One ND Sweep

FMCSA has renewed the paper medical-card exemption for one more year, but only for drivers licensed in Alaska, the one state that still has not wired its licensing agency to the National Registry. For CDL and CLP holders in the other 49 states and D.C., the notice says it in one sentence: they 'may no longer rely on the paper MEC as proof of the driver's medical certification for any period of time as of October 12, 2026.' What counts from Monday is the medical-certification line on your CDLIS driving record, which your examiner is supposed to upload and your state is supposed to post. If that line is wrong, the card in your wallet will not fix it at the scale. In the same week CVSA released Operation Safe Driver Week numbers (1,956 tickets to CMV drivers, speeding first) and FMCSA reported a multi-agency sweep with ICE in Williston, North Dakota: 109 inspections, 494 violations.

Oct 9, 2026•

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