For two years the story of the for-hire market was shrinking capacity. That chapter just ended — on paper. ACT Research's For-Hire Trucking Index for June puts the seasonally adjusted Capacity Index at 55.0, up 1.5 points from May and the highest reading in 43 months, since roughly late 2022. At the same time, freight volumes slipped and the rate index came sharply off its record. The market is rebalancing — but only on the equipment side of the ledger.
The June numbers at a glance
ACT For-Hire Trucking Index, June (seasonally adjusted)
Capacity Index: 55.0, up from 53.5 — a 43-month high
Volume Index: 65.9, down 1.8 points from May's cycle-high 67.7, but still in the top quintile of the survey's ~17-year history
Freight Rate Index: 70.2, down 9.5 points from a record 79.7 in May
Driver Availability Index: 34.1 — up from 32.6, yet still deeply depressed after April's five-year low of 30.4
Supply-Demand Balance: 60.9, easing from 64.2
Productivity: 62.3 miles per tractor, up from 56.3
The capacity growth is not a broad industry buying spree. Class 8 tractor sales remain below replacement levels, and only 47% of surveyed carriers plan equipment purchases within three months — under the historical June average of about 53%. What ACT is measuring is a supply response concentrated among larger, better-capitalized for-hire fleets that watched rates spike through spring and moved to catch them.
“ Industrial demand has improved with data center investment, and while consumer demand remains soft, falling energy prices and fewer tariffs should support some inventory restocking in the coming months. ”
So is capacity loose or tight? Yes.
Here is the paradox of this news cycle: the same week ACT reported a 43-month capacity high, industry coverage was full of warnings about historically tight trucking capacity. Both are right, because they measure different things. ACT's index tracks for-hire service and equipment capacity among surveyed carriers. The other story is about qualified drivers — and that supply is shrinking fast. A trucking coalition now estimates more than 194,000 non-domiciled CDL holders, roughly 97% of them, face ineligibility under new federal rules, while over 27,000 drivers have been placed out of service for English-language-proficiency violations and all 50 state CDL programs are under audit.
Two capacities, one market
Trucks and trailers are getting easier to find. The people licensed to drive them are getting harder to find. ACT's own Driver Availability Index — 34.1, against a neutral 50 — says the driver side hasn't rebalanced at all. When equipment capacity and driver capacity move in opposite directions, the driver side usually wins the argument over rates.
That tension is why ACT doesn't read June's cooling rate index as the end of the rate story. In Vieth's words: "For-hire volumes should continue to benefit from growing capacity constraints even in a broadly soft demand environment."
What it means if you run trucks
Don't price off the capacity headline alone — the driver squeeze is the binding constraint, and it favors carriers who can actually seat their trucks
Rate momentum cooled from May's record, not collapsed — a 70.2 rate index is still historically strong
If you're hiring, the enforcement wave is your opening: seated, compliant drivers are the scarcest asset in the market right now
Watch Q3 contract negotiations — spring spot gains are still working their way into contract rates
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