For four years the freight market punished everyone who stayed in it. Now the people who watch it for a living are saying out loud what the load boards have been hinting at all summer: this looks like the start of a multi-year recovery, not a blip. In a FreightWaves interview published August 18, RXO chief strategy officer Jared Weisfeld laid out the case — 20% to 25% of the for-hire truckload supply base is likely to exit the market, and rates are repricing before demand has even shown up.
The numbers behind the optimism
This isn't one brokerage talking its book. DAT's own data puts dry van spot linehaul rates up roughly 34–42% year over year through mid-August, with load posts up about 26% while available trucks fell about 28%. Tender rejections — the share of contracted loads carriers turn down — peaked at 17–18% around early July and still sit near 13%, levels the market hasn't sustained since the last bull cycle. And the Logistics Managers' Index clocked transportation capacity at 28.4 in July, the second-fastest contraction in the index's ten-year history.
“ Spot rates are up 30% to 50% year over year, even without a real demand recovery. ”
Enforcement is retiring the phantom capacity
What makes this cycle different is why trucks are leaving. It isn't just bankruptcies — it's a wave of federal enforcement clearing out capacity that arguably should never have been on the road. Since the non-domiciled CDL rule took effect March 16, more than 28,000 of those licenses — about 14% of the roughly 194,000 outstanding — have been revoked, and FMCSA projects the eligible pool eventually shrinks toward 6,000. Regulators have pulled 56 ELD devices off the approved list since January, removed some 3,000 training providers from the registry, and forced about 550 driving schools to close after site visits.
Why exited capacity won't rush back
Operating costs are up roughly 26% this cycle — insurance, tires and maintenance lead the way
Financing a truck is far more expensive, with benchmark borrowing costs near 7%
Enforcement on English proficiency, cabotage and CDL mills keeps the re-entry bar high
Per Weisfeld, the shakeout is only about halfway done — 'there is probably another halfway to go'
The honest caveat: demand hasn't turned yet
FTR's Avery Vise notes capacity has come down 'probably almost as deep as it can' — but sustained freight-volume growth still hasn't materialized. And Q1 2026 was the first quarter since mid-2025 in which new carrier authorities outpaced revocations, an early hint that some capacity could trickle back. The supply side of the seesaw has moved; the demand side is the thing to watch.
What it means for your operation
Spot pricing has leverage again — benchmark your lanes before the next contract bid round
Rejection rates near 13% mean carriers can be choosier about the freight they run
If the shakeout really is only halfway done, repricing has room to continue into 2027
Watch quarterly FMCSA authority data: a sustained return of new entrants is the one thing that slows this down
A turning market rewards the prepared
Trucks, trailers and opportunities from carriers repositioning for the upcycle are on Qrylo.