The national average for on-highway diesel hit $5.313 a gallon in the last week of July — up more than 70 cents in just four weeks and far above where it stood a year ago. This time the driver isn't crude oil. It's refining: the plants that turn crude into diesel keep going offline, and the ones still running can't keep up.
Goldman Sachs now calls diesel the epicenter of a global fuel squeeze. Global refining throughput fell roughly 6.5 million barrels per day year-over-year in July — the lowest for this time of year since the 2020 pandemic — as war-related outages in the Middle East and Russia knocked plants out. Diesel exports worldwide dropped about 35%. Extra output from the Americas and Africa has replaced only about a third of what was lost.
The majors say the squeeze has staying power
“ I've never seen the available capacity relative to demand as low as it is today. ”
Exxon and Chevron both warned on their Q2 calls that fuel prices will stay elevated as long as refining capacity is constrained. Chevron's CEO Mike Wirth singled out middle distillates — diesel above all — as the acute stress point, and said he expects upward pressure on product prices into the third quarter 'and perhaps beyond.' The refining numbers back him up: Chevron's refining segment earned $4.9 billion in Q2, more than six times what it made a year earlier.
What a dollar of diesel means per mile
At 6.5 mpg, every extra $1.00 per gallon adds roughly 15 cents per mile in fuel cost. Many surcharge tables were calibrated for $3.50–$4.00 diesel — at $5.31, the gap between the table and the pump comes straight out of the carrier's margin.
How to protect your margin right now
Re-check the base price and peg in your fuel surcharge agreements against the current DOE weekly average — not last year's assumptions.
Watch the EIA update every Monday; in a fast-moving market, a week-old number can cost you real money on a long lane.
Price regional spreads into dispatch decisions — the gap between the cheapest and priciest fueling regions is unusually wide.
Owner-operators feel the spike first: renegotiate before the lag between pump price and surcharge eats the quarter.
Rebuilding refining capacity takes years, not weeks — which is why the companies that own the refineries are the ones saying relief isn't close. Until that changes, fuel strategy is no longer a back-office detail. It's the difference between a profitable lane and a losing one.
Stay ahead of the freight market
Fuel, rates, capacity and compliance — the shifts that move your business, tracked in one place.